Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 86155.243552 90915.037147 95672.734025 100781.830857 106109.612869 111498.229528 117356.921990
2025-02-16 77720.977552 84967.237999 92413.378310 100626.420055 109420.679456 118544.309072 128714.594817
2025-02-23 72145.438041 81104.081369 90511.663375 101105.849977 112682.364609 124926.290608 138833.149183
2025-03-02 67597.811530 77804.631937 88720.109447 101226.830651 115124.168714 130056.581898 147277.305285
2025-03-09 64682.659611 75982.764133 88258.605839 102533.423511 118622.523561 136141.296404 156603.762042
2025-03-16 61171.168959 73233.070453 86528.380456 102200.330262 120095.108938 139816.727053 163118.763575
2025-03-23 59239.447821 72125.986719 86514.400914 103679.157545 123502.645986 145580.748635 171928.362756
2025-03-30 57210.869072 70773.685458 86101.905842 104593.909603 126177.563006 150451.270264 179686.547302
2025-04-06 54963.990152 69044.551389 85144.236771 104775.980153 127921.669654 154192.997953 186109.322835
2025-04-13 52790.759924 67297.975209 84071.384733 104734.292050 129329.225065 157489.277256 191979.706235
2025-04-20 51678.521313 66762.292403 84378.346966 106278.693986 132569.559116 162905.038727 200328.834750
2025-04-27 50667.784149 66294.124890 84719.400495 107825.524117 135788.197297 168288.523847 208655.361872
2025-05-04 49242.369273 65283.937159 84386.984804 108558.170630 138052.343719 172588.730651 215781.187721
2025-05-11 47515.266840 63838.805011 83472.531331 108539.020630 139379.144425 175760.124284 221571.846582
2025-05-18 46175.930775 62828.146528 83047.149490 109079.937834 141357.965999 179699.902472 228289.786463
2025-05-25 44724.154667 61620.792647 82329.201279 109215.236220 142805.806931 182978.408732 234206.122631
2025-06-01 43952.196126 61251.789589 82634.579872 110606.029610 145792.932094 188131.625030 242423.134525
2025-06-08 42422.238924 59849.465171 81586.905287 110252.155141 146576.002256 190566.223975 247309.334981
2025-06-15 41841.524138 59663.847178 82070.414639 111824.560112 149766.240826 195971.812293 255874.745876
2025-06-22 41030.055916 59143.631406 82099.124536 112797.039953 152190.592961 200432.245442 263291.983382
2025-06-29 39924.736386 58196.405130 81543.450780 112990.588993 153607.306366 203630.008530 269146.480701
2025-07-06 38772.370028 57150.468903 80826.771204 112946.274361 154697.763499 206406.999171 274476.175709
2025-07-13 38368.202506 57102.752207 81409.566887 114587.868746 157953.008279 211918.791221 283266.062110